The SureFireThing Camarilla Equation and the Great Crash of 1929
|
|
|
After
reading our day trading guide, people often ask how far back
the SureFireThing Camarilla Equation has been tested. The answer might surprise
you!
October
24, 1929. On this black day, prices fell so far as to
wipe out an entire year's gains. Over the next 2 weeks, more
than $30 billion effectively disappeared from the US economy.
Some stocks took twenty-five years or more to recover.
Interestingly,
the SureFireThing Camarilla Equation had the Crash pegged. Let's
look at the prediction from the day before, using SureFireThing's Camarilla Equation Calculator.
Here are
the Open, High, Low and Settlement for the Dow Jones Industrial
Average, either side of the Crash..
|
| Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Close |
| 21st
Oct |
323.9
|
328.3
|
314.6
|
320.9
|
| 22nd
Oct |
322.0
|
333.0
|
322.0
|
326.5
|
| 23rd
Oct |
326.5
|
329.9
|
303.8
|
305.9
|
| 24th
Oct |
305.9
|
312.8
|
272.3
|
299.5
|
| 25th
Oct |
299.5
|
306.0
|
295.6
|
301.2
|
| 28th
Oct |
295.2
|
295.2
|
256.8
|
260.6
|
| 29th
Oct |
252.4
|
252.4
|
212.3
|
230.0
|
|
| |
|
So how
did SureFireThing's Camarilla Equation perform???!!!
|
2 DAYS BEFORE THE GREAT CRASH
|
|
| According
to SureFireThing's Camarilla Equation Calculator, the H3 level
was just under 325, with a 'breakout' H4 level above it of 328
and change. A LONG would have been triggered at the H4 level,
giving a maximum profit potential of almost 5 points,
had anyone known about the equation then! |
| |
|
|
DAY BEFORE THE GREAT CRASH
|
|
The day
before the great crash, the H3 level was calculated as
329 and a half, with the H4 above it at 332 plus change. A SHORT
was triggered going back down thru the H3 level, giving a maximum
profit potential of almost 26 points, an INCREDIBLY large
win for just one day!
|
DAY OF THE GREAT CRASH
|
|
The higher
H3 level was calculated as about 313. The high of the day was
312.8, meaning the equation missed the high by only 10ths of
a point. As the market crashed, it hit the 'breakout' lower
L4 level at just under 299, giving a ride down to the low of
the day, for a maximum profit potential of over 26 points.
In just 2 days, the SureFireThing Camarilla Equation picked
off over 50 points, equivalent to approximately 17% of the entire
index!
|
DAY AFTER THE GREAT CRASH
|
|
The market
meandered uneasily within the L3 and H3 levels, and no trades
were triggered.
|
4 DAYS AFTER THE GREAT CRASH
|
|
The lower
L3 was calculated by SureFireThing's Camarilla Equation Calculator
as just over 298. L4 beneath it was close to 295. This gave
a maximum profit potential as the market reversed back up thru
L3 of over 5 points, a respectable gain for the day.
|
5 DAYS AFTER THE GREAT CRASH
|
|
The Calculator
gave just shy of 297 as the lower L3 level, with almost 295
below it as the L4 level. In this instance it became the 'breakout'
level, leading to a maximum profit potential of 38 points.
|
| In total,
in just 6 short days, 99.95 points were available, that's
almost a third of the entire index! The Equation expresses an
internal aspect of the market's workings, and has been an incredibly
accurate tool for most of the last century. What's more,
this stock
trading system works just as well today
as it did way back in those long-forgotten times of the Great
Crash. |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
|
|
|
